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Thursday, May 4, 2017

Does Hawaii need THAAD? Not Yet.

President Trump is rattling American Sabres at North Korea because of that country's missile program and its efforts to obtain a viable Nuclear weapon.  Kauai residents should be assured that there is little chance today of a North Korean missile, the Musudan which is on a mobile launcher, hitting our shores since it has a range of 2500 miles and the Korean Peninsula is 3500 miles away.  The three-stage Taepodong-2 might be improved enough in the future to be able to reach Hawaii, but it requires a fixed launch site of which there are only two and they are nearly 5000 miles away.

NPR reports that THAAD, which costs nearly $1B per battery, can protect a "bubble" of only 100 miles.  There are 6 known THAAD batteries as of today.  Only one of which is in Hawaii and it was placed at PMRF to test the system not to actually defend against anything.

THAAD is reported to have limited effectiveness against Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles which are defined to have a minimum range of 3500 miles, and so far THAAD has only been tested against Short-Range Ballistic Missiles.   THAAD is not the only ABM system available to the US and South Korea.

South Korea is soon holding elections and the forecast winner of those elections, Moon Jae-in, does not want to pay for a THAAD battery.  Just like Mexico is not going to pay for Trump's wall.  It was deployed by Trump without consultation with the South Koreans.  Recall that Trump is pushing to renegotiate trade deals with South Korea.  Residents of South Korea are protesting the THAAD deployment and saying NO!

China has halted construction projects in South Korea because of their concerns over THAAD radar penetrating deep into China.

THAAD is useless in protecting against the thousands of artillery pieces that are today within range of Seoul, the South Korean capital.  If hostilities break out, North Korea's minuscule ballistic missile system, which has not been shown to be capable of carrying a nuclear weapon, will be the least of the worries.

This deployment will not "Make America Great Again", rather it shows our country as a bully that thinks it can push everyone else in the world around.

Our Representative Tulsi Gabbard, who recently in The Garden Island acknowledged the potential threat from North Korea, correctly I believe, has voted against strengthened sanctions against North Korea.

Additional Information:

This YouTube video gives a brief overview of THAAD and discusses its failures.

  • I love Putin's expression when he is told that THAAD is just a jobs program.
  • Ted Postol testifies that THAAD is extremely easy to defeat.
  • Raytheon has a habit of lying about the success of their ABM tests.


The Missile Defense Agency web site.  Under the "Elements" link you can find a description of the components of the ABM system.

A UPI article on THAAD problems against NK missiles.  Note that this article discusses other missiles than the ones above.

An LA Times article: $40-BILLION MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM PROVES UNRELIABLE.  This article is about the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System, not THAAD.
  • From 1999 through March of this year (2014), Boeing spent $261.6 million on general lobbying of the federal government and Raytheon spent $144.4 million, public records show.
  • Though both North Korea and Iran have launched crude unarmed missiles, U.S. intelligence assessments provided to Congress indicate that neither country has the capability to deliver a long-range, nuclear-tipped missile to the United States.
  • It typically takes a year or more to disassemble and restore a kill vehicle.

More information can be obtained by googling: theodore postol thaad

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